Genocide and Mass Atrocities Alert: Syria
Updated: 26 April 2013

Since the beginning of March 2011, the stability of the Syrian Arab Republic has degenerated at an alarming rate. Genocide Watch warns that massacres and mass atrocities against pro-democracy protesters and the civilian population are being committed by Syrian security forces under the command of the al-Assad government. Protests turned violent as former Syrian troops defected and formed the “Free Syrian Army,” which the Syrian government continues to call a “terrorist” organization to justify its all out war against the rebels and Sunni Muslim civilians. What began as the violent repression of civilian protests has escalated to a civil war. Whole cities have been shelled by Syrian tanks and mortars, and investigations have led several countries to accuse government forces of using chemical weapons against civilians. Reports of human rights abuses by rebel forces have increased. One group of jihadist rebels has declared itself an al-Qaeda affiliate. With over one million people displaced and the death toll over 70,000, the war rages on, threatening the stability of the region.

Violent attacks on civilians by the al-Assad regime have continued to escalate in brutality as the government and opposition forces vie for control of strategic locations. According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights in February 2013, the death toll in Syria was approaching 70,000 – an overwhelming increase since July 2011, when Genocide Watch issued its first Genocide Alert for Syria. As of April 2012, the U.N. Refugee Agency recorded over 1,300,000 refugees having fled to neighboring countries, mainly Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey.

As the intense struggle for power continues between the al-Assad regime and opposition fighters, the government has tried to close off borders and shut down the Internet. However, information on the mass atrocities has been obtained from victims and witnesses by the U.N. Human Rights Council, the BBC, Human Rights Watch, and the Arab League’s Commission of Inquiry. Video footage of the violence and witness testimonies continue to surface on the Internet and are broadcast on world mass media. Although the U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Syria has cited abuses on both sides, their report in February 2013 held that government atrocities far outweighed those committed by rebels.

The evidence is conclusive that the al-Assad regime is committing intentional crimes against humanity. Among the crimes the al-Assad regime is committing are: indiscriminant, widespread attacks on civilians, arbitrary detention of thousands in the political opposition, genocidal massacres of whole villages of Sunni Muslims, rape of detainees, widespread torture- including torture and murder of children- and denial of food, medicines and other essential resources to civilians.

The Alawite government of al-Assad believes it is about to lose all power in a zero-sum, winner take all revolution. Its massacres have become genocidal. Early warning signs and stages of genocide in Syria are:

– Prior unpunished genocidal massacres, such as those perpetrated by Assad’s father in Hama in the 1980’s;

– Rule by a minority sect – the Alawite sect that supports Assad – with an exclusionary ideology

– Systematic human rights atrocities;

– Fear by the ruling elite that any compromise will mean total loss of their power;

– Deliberate targeting of particular groups — Sunni Muslims and army defectors;

– Denial by the Syrian government that it is committing crimes against humanity, blaming “foreign – inspired terrorist gangs” for the armed conflict.

Previous efforts by the U.N. Security Council to pass a resolution proposed by the Arab League, calling for the resignation of President Assad and supporting an Arab League peace plan, were impeded by Russia and China’s veto. A nearly identical U.N. General Assembly Resolution was passed in 2012 by a vote of 137 to 12, and the past U.N. Secretary General, Kofi Annan, denounced the al-Assad regime’s crimes against humanity. Shortly thereafter, Navi Pillay, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, issued a recommendation that the U.N. Security Council refer evidence of atrocities committed by government forces in Syria to the International Criminal Court. In April 2012, a peace proposal called for a UN-supervised ceasefire, but the deadline passed with no lessening of violence. Plans such as the U.N. Supervision Mission in Syria have continued to fallthrough due to the intense, ongoing violence.

Lakhdar Brahimi was appointed U.N. and Arab League Special Envoy to Syria in August 2012. He has proposed an arms embargo on both sides. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon also supports ending the supply of weapons on both sides. However the Arab League opposes this action because al- Assad continues to receive military supplies from Iran and Russia. In April 2013, the U.N. Security Council issued a non-binding statement that “The escalating violence is completely unacceptable and must end immediately,” and that the Council “urged all parties to ensure safe and unimpeded access for aid organizations to those in need in all areas of Syria.” But the U.N. has taken no action.

Despite the Syrian National Coalition being granted Syria’s seat at the Arab League in March 2013, factions remain within the opposition forces, and there is growing concern of spillover from the conflict to other countries in the region. There is still hesitation among Western countries to provide further aid and arms to the rebels. Russia rejects any actions that could lead to regime change. The pressure on the United States to urge regional allies to intervene has increased with recent reports citing the use of chemical weapons by the al-Assad regime.

Genocide Watch offers the following recommendations:

– The Arab League, Turkey, the Islamic Conference, and other nations should demand an immediate cease-fire in Syria, with full rights for non-violent protest.

– The Arab League and Turkey should quickly create an Islamic Court to try al-Assad and other Syrian officials for crimes against humanity under Islamic law;

– The Arab League, Turkey, European Union, US and other nations should impose targeted national and regional sanctions against financial accounts, visas, and businesses owned by top officials of the Syrian regime and its army;

– Arab and NATO nations should offer to cooperate with Russia to airlift and ship in humanitarian and medical relief supplies to all parts of Syria;

– The UN General Assembly should pass another resolution demanding fully protected access for UN and international aid workers and journalists to all areas of Syria.

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Genocide and Mass Atrocity Emergency: Syria
8 June 2012

Since 1970, Syria has been under the repressive rule of the al-Assad family regime and the socialist Ba’ath Party. Political tensions have been caused by opposing ideologies of the ruling Alawite minority – Baathist socialism – and the Sunni Muslim majority (three quarters of the population) which favors adherence to moderate Islamic law. Since the 1980’s, the Assad government has become increasingly authoritarian and repressive. Torture and killing of opposition leaders became policy.

During the Arab Spring of 2011, which swept authoritarian regimes out of power across North Africa, pro- democracy protests began in Syria in early March. The eruption of mass anti-government protests quickly spread throughout the country. Violent attacks on civilians by the al-Assad regime have escalated in brutality throughout the past year. When Genocide Watch issued its Genocide Warning for Syria in February 2012, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights reported the death toll exceeding 5,400. Today, reports by the Syrian Network for Human Rights and the Damascus Centre for Human Rights Studies place the death toll around 14,000. Thousands more have fled as refugees to neighboring countries like Jordan and Lebanon. Despite government attempts to cut off the internet, exclude reporters, and even to forbid the UN to investigate the Houla massacre, information on the mass atrocities has been obtained from victims and witnesses by the U.N. Human Rights Council, Human Rights Watch and the international press.

The U.N. Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) deployed 300 unarmed monitors to oversee a “cease- fire” that never took effect. UNSMIS has stood by and watched as civilians were slaughtered. The Houla massacre on May 25 and the al-Qubayr massacre on June 7 killed over 200 civilians, many of them women and children executed by gunshots to the back of the head. Eyewitnesses have testified that the massacres were perpetrated by the Syrian Army and Alawite militias. President Bashar al-Assad denies involvement in the mass killings, claiming terrorists are behind the country’s uprising. But the U.N. Human Rights Council has condemned the Syrian government for committing the massacres.

The evidence is now conclusive that the al-Assad regime is committing intentional crimes against humanity. Among the crimes the al-Assad regime is committing are: indiscriminant, widespread attacks on civilians, arbitrary detention of thousands in the political opposition, rape of detainees, widespread torture- including torture and murder of children- and denial of food, medicines and other essential resources to civilians. U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan warns that Syria stands on the brink of a “full- blown civil war”. The early warning signs and stages of genocide in Syria are:

– Prior unpunished genocidal massacres perpetrated by Assad’s father in Hama in the 1980’s;
– Rule by a minority sect – the Alawite sect that supports Assad – with an exclusionary ideology;
– Systematic human rights violations;
– Fear by the ruling elite that any compromise will mean total loss of their power;
– Deliberate targeting of particular groups — Sunni Muslims and army defectors;
– Denial by the Syrian government of committing crimes against humanity, blaming “foreign- inspired terrorist gangs” for the armed conflict.

Genocide Watch is issuing a Genocide Emergency Alert.

Genocide Watch recommends that:


- The Arab League and Turkey should quickly create an Islamic Court to try Assad and other Syrian officials for crimes against humanity under Islamic law;
– The Arab League, Turkey, European Union, US and other nations should impose targeted sanctions against financial accounts, visas, and businesses owned by top Syrian officials;
– Arab and NATO nations should offer to cooperate with Russia to air lift and ship in humanitarian and medical relief supplies to all parts of Syria;
– The UN General Assembly should pass another resolution demanding full protected access for UN and international aid workers and journalists to all areas of Syria.
– Arab League and Turkish armed forces should support Syrian Army leaders who are planning to overthrow the al-Assad regime from within with as little bloodshed as possible.

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Genocide and Mass Atrocities Alert: Syria
16 February 2012

Since the beginning of March 2011, the stability of the Syrian Arab Republic has degenerated at an alarming rate. Genocide Watch warns that massacres and mass atrocities against pro-democracy protesters and the civilian population are being committed by Syrian security forces under the command of the al-Assad government. Protests have turned violent as former Syrian troops have defected and formed the “Free Syrian Army,” which the Syrian government has called a “terrorist” organization, and used to justify its ever more violent repression of civilian protests. Whole cities have been shelled by Syrian tanks and mortars, and at least 6000 civilians have died.

Since 1970, Syria has been under the repressive rule of the al-Assad family regime and the socialist Ba’ath Party. Tensions and political strife have been an on-going theme in Syria due in large part to the opposing ideologies of the regime’s ruling Alawite minority — Baathist socialism- and the Sunni Muslim majority, which makes up three quarters of the country’s population, and largely favors adherence to Islamic law. After the Hama Massacre of 1982- a ‘scorched earth’ operation that killed 20,000 people to combat an attempted Sunni Muslim uprising- the government became increasingly authoritarian, relying on repressive policies to maintain control. Torture and killing of opposition leaders became policy.

When Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, the Constitution was amended to permit his 34 year old son, Bashar al-Assad to take power after a one-party “election.” Dynastic successions are characteristic of Middle Eastern autocracies, as they are in North Korea. There was a brief “Damascus Spring” when political life became freer, and Bashar al-Assad promised reforms, but the only reforms were economic, freeing the economy from the stranglehold of state socialism. Political repression returned quickly.

During the Arab Spring of 2011, which swept authoritarian regimes out of power across North Africa, pro- democracy protests began in Syria in early March. Violent repression followed quickly when official mukhabarat security forces opened fire on non-violent political protesters in the city of Daraa on March 18th, killing at least four people. The eruption of mass anti-government protests quickly spread throughout the country, and violent attacks on civilians by the al-Assad regime have continued to escalate in brutality throughout the past year. According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, as of January 2012, the death toll in Syria now exceeds 5,400- over five times more than the estimated deaths in July 2011, when Genocide Watch issued its first Genocide Alert for Syria. Thousands more have fled as refugees to neighboring countries like Jordan and Lebanon.

As the intense struggle for power continues between the al-Assad regime and opposition fighters, the government has resorted to the extreme measures of closing off borders and shutting down the internet. However, information on the mass atrocities has been obtained from victims and witnesses by the U.N. Human Rights Council, the BBC, Human Rights Watch, and the Arab League’s Commission of Inquiry. Video footage of the violence and witness testimonies have also surfaced on the internet.

The evidence is now conclusive that the al-Assad regime is committing intentional crimes against humanity. Among the crimes the al-Assad regime is committing are: indiscriminant, widespread attacks on civilians, arbitrary detention of thousands in the political opposition, rape of detainees, widespread torture- including torture and murder of children- and denial of food, medicines and other essential resources to civilians.

If the Alawite government of al-Assad believes it is about to lose all power in a zero-sum, winner take all revolution, its massacres could turn genocidal. Early warning signs and stages of genocide in Syria are:

– Prior unpunished genocidal massacres, such as those perpetrated by Assad’s father in Hama in the 1980’s;
– Rule by a minority sect – the Alawite sect that supports Assad – with an exclusionary ideology
– Systematic human rights violations;
– Fear by the ruling elite that any compromise will mean total loss of their power;
– Deliberate targeting of particular groups — Sunni Muslims and army defectors;
– Denial by the Syrian government of committing crimes against humanity, blaming “foreign-inspired terrorist gangs” for the armed conflict.

In February 2012, a UN Security Council resolution proposed by the Arab League, calling for the resignation of President Assad and supporting an Arab League peace plan, was vetoed by Russia and China. A nearly identical UN General Assembly Resolution was then passed by a vote of 137 to 12 and the U.N. Secretary General denounced the al-Assad regime’s crimes against humanity. Navi Pillay, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, has issued a recommendation that the U.N. Security Council refer evidence of atrocities committed by government forces in Syria to the International Criminal Court.

President al-Assad announced plans for a constitutional referendum to remove the clause that makes the Baath Party the sole party permitted in Syria, but it will have no impact on the intensifying violence.

Genocide Watch offers the following recommendations:
– The Arab League, Turkey, the Islamic Conference, and other nations should demand an immediate cease-fire in Syria, with full rights for non-violent protest.
– The Arab League and Turkey should quickly create an Islamic Court to try Assad and other Syrian officials for crimes against humanity under Islamic law;
– The Arab League, Turkey, European Union, US and other nations should impose targeted national and regional sanctions against financial accounts, visas, and businesses owned by top officials of the Syrian regime and its army;
– Arab and NATO nations should offer to cooperate with Russia to air lift and ship in humanitarian and medical relief supplies to all parts of Syria;
– The UN General Assembly should pass another resolution demanding full protected access for UN and international aid workers and journalists to all areas of Syria.

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