Africa’s Islamic state

Winnipeg Free Press

25 January 2015

Deflecting blame is a skill prized by politicians the world over. Many could, however, still learn a thing or two from President Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria, who has found no end of scapegoats for Boko Haram, a vicious insurgent group in the northeast of Africa’s most populous country. Jonathan’s most common evasion is the assertion that Boko Haram is a regional problem that cannot be solved by Nigeria alone.

His excuses seem, unfortunately, to be metamorphosing into fact. Boko Haram is now spreading its poison into neighboring states. The kidnapping of about 80 Cameroonians from villages near the border with Nigeria has shone a light on its growing clout throughout the countries around Lake Chad.

Further north in Niger, in the once-sleepy fishing village of Kirikiri, makeshift huts are crammed with refugees who have fled Boko Haram, which loosely translates as “Western Education Is Forbidden.” Every day dozens more wade off boats, their few possessions held high over their heads.

Security is deteriorating fast. Shortly after a visitor arrived last year, armed guards became nervous, urging the party to move on in case it became a target. In the nearby hospital in Diffa, Nigerian soldiers lay three to a bed, bleeding through their bandages, after retreating across the border.

Boko Haram, which has killed thousands in its fight to establish a “caliphate,” seldom has shown much regard for national boundaries. It readily retreats across them when threatened, or crosses into neighboring states to recruit and train disaffected young men, as it recently has been doing in Diffa.

Nonetheless, it had not previously nursed the same apocalyptic ambitions in neighboring countries as it does in Nigeria. That may be changing. Many experts now think that Boko Haram hopes to replicate the ancient Kanem-Bornu Empire that once spanned parts of Cameroon, Chad and Niger.

So far Cameroon has been the worst afflicted of Nigeria’s neighbors. Kidnappings on its soil have become ever more audacious during the past year. The government has responded by deploying troops to the northern borders, prompting reprisals from the militants. In December Boko Haram briefly overran a military base in Cameroon and attacked five villages.

With the situation spiraling out of control, pressure is mounting on regional governments to respond, but their efforts have been ineffectual. Last year the Lake Chad countries agreed to deploy a multinational task force to fight the Islamists, with several countries pledging to send 700 soldiers each. Plans have stalled, however, as they bicker over details, including the right of hot pursuit. A meeting that began in Niger on Jan. 20 was supposed to set wheels in motion, though at the time this article went to press little appeared to have been agreed upon.

Other initiatives also appear to have floundered. A French plan to set up an intelligence-fusion center was left with little intelligence to fuse when most of those taking part neglected to send liaison officers. The regional economic grouping, Ecowas, said that it may also request an African Union force to tackle the problem. Whether that is likely to materialize is another question: A.U. troops already are stretched across the continent-in Somalia, Central African Republic and Mali, among other places-and may not have the resources to respond, said Ryan Cummings of Red 24, a crisis-management group.

Moreover, Nigeria’s prickly government probably would reject the notion of foreign forces fighting on its soil. Yet there is little left to justify its pride. Nigeria’s army suffers from weak morale-at least 66 of its soldiers are on death row for their refusal to fight last year-and its units often have fled, in what the army calls “tactical maneuvering,” before the militants.

Western countries appear to be losing patience. Relations with America have cooled noticeably since revelations of the Nigerian army’s abuses of human rights. In response Nigeria canceled a program under which American soldiers trained Nigerian ones. American is now offering help to Cameroon instead.

Chad, which so far has escaped the escalating crisis, recently began the deployment of 2,000 soldiers to assist Cameroon on the Nigerian border. Its army has a good track record against insurgents, most recently in Mali in 2013, but Abubakar Shekau, Boko Haram’s leader, seems unconcerned.

“The kings of Africa, you are late,” he declared in a recent video. “I challenge you to attack me even now.”

For all the spillover, though, the problem is largely a Nigerian one. With elections approaching on Feb. 14, many politicians are focused more on their campaigns than on fighting the insurgency. Until Nigeria’s leaders show that they can take the war as seriously as they do politicking, it will be impossible to curb Boko Haram, even with regional forces to help.

Featured image: Nigerian Islamist Boko Haram fighters have attacked the strategically important north-eastern city of Maiduguri, with dozens reported dead. Copyright: EPA

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