Genocide and Mass Atrocities Alert: Somalia

June 2014

 Complex civil conflicts, along with devastating periods of drought over the past two decades have left the Republic of Somalia a failed state. The UNDP deems Somalia the world’s “worst humanitarian disaster.” Somalia’s instability has led to mass atrocities and human rights violations against the civilian population, being committed by all major parties involved in the conflict, especially by Al-Shabaab insurgents, Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces, and intervening Ethiopian military forces. Therefore, Genocide Watch places Somalia at Stage 9 on the 10 Stages of Genocide and issues a Genocide and Mass Atrocities Alert.

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Since its independence in 1960, Somalia has been plagued by decades of inter-clan rivalries and warfare. Mohamed Siad Barre seized power in 1969 by military coup d’état and turned Somalia into a Soviet-backed communist state, leading the totalitarian Somali Revolutionary Socialist Party. Resentment for the regime grew as Somalia became a proxy battleground for the US and USSR during the Cold War. A coalition of clan-based opposition groups overthrew the regime in 1991 as a response to government corruption and a major episode of politicide committed by the Barre regime after the Isaaq clan rebellion of 1988.

The current armed conflict in Somalia began in 1991 with the fall of Barre and the onset of clan warfare. Somalia has since lacked any stable, centralized government control. This power vacuum has given way to protracted clan warfare and lawlessness that continues to wrack the country, with thousands of casualties, periods of famine, and large refugee movements into surrounding countries. In the early 1990s, there were several humanitarian intervention attempts made by the US and the United Nations, but facing violent opposition from Somali militants, both withdrew from the country by 1995.

In 2004, a two-year negotiation process resulted in the formation of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), marking the country’s fourteenth attempt to establish control since the 1991 start of the Somali Civil War. Representing just a few clans, and having almost no effective power over the majority of Somali territory, the TFG lacks legitimacy. In 2006, an alliance of Sharia courts and Somali businessmen, known as the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), emerged in opposition to the TFG, and successfully gained control of Mogadishu and much of the south. However, the rise of the ICU was unacceptable to Ethiopia, the European Union, and the US.

In its place, a radical Islamic insurgent group, al-Shabaab, openly allied with Al Qaeda, took control of large swaths of Somalia north of Mogadishu. In support of the TFG, Ethiopia, backed by the US, launched a military intervention in 2006, which drastically intensified internal violence. Ethiopia withdrew its troops in 2009 following the Djibouti peace talks, which extended the Transitional Government’s mandate and selected a moderate Islamist president. Fighting continued against al-Shabaab and ANISOM forces (the African Union Mission in Somalia) led by Burundi, intervened. ANISOM has steadily gained ground for the Transitional Government.

Kenyan forces intervened in southern Somalia to combat al-Shabaab militants, who pose a threat to Kenya’s northeastern border, which is controlled by Somali clans. Al-Shabaab was ousted from Mogadishu by AU forces in August 2011. Somali’s representative body approved a new constitution, electing Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud 20 days later. After 18 months of relative peace, violence broke out in Mogadishu in 2013 with a series of suicide attacks by al-Shabaab. Still outnumbered by AU forces, al Shabaab is relying heavily on guerilla tactics (suicide, roadside, and car bombs) as opposed to their previous infantry tactics, which resulted in more casualties, in their attempt to retake the city. In June 2014, Al-Shabaab took responsibility for the deadly raids on Kenyan coastal towns that killed over 60 people. Kenya retaliated, bombing al-Shabaab bases in the villages of Anole and Kuday, killing 80 insurgents.  Al-Shabaab has revamped insurgent efforts in Mogadishu, with the July 5, 2014 car bombing outside of Parliament and the July 8, 2014 infiltration of the President’s palace.

Compounding the disastrous effects of protracted armed conflict, Somalia has also suffered from periods of severe drought, which led the UN to declare much of the country to be in a state of famine in 2011. Al-Shabaab has worsened the crisis by imposing severe restrictions on humanitarian aid agencies, banning most Western aid agencies from entering territory they control, and stopping civilians from fleeing the affected areas. Although the UN determined the famine to be over in

BBC

February 2013, Somalia is still suffering from its lasting effects. Recently, African Union forces have been pushing Al-Shabaab out of towns in southern Somalia resulting in Al-Shabaab militants encircling these towns and blocking shipments of food from entering the towns. Al-Shabaab’s intentional deprivation of food is creating a humanitarian emergency as civilians are dying from starvation and malnutrition..  Such intentional starvation constitutes genocide under Article 2(c) of the Genocide Convention.

Relatively successful attempts at stability have been made in the autonomus northern regions of the country known as Puntland and Somaliland. Puntland, the northeastern section of Somalia, declared itself an autonomous state in 1998, and has since had a democratically elected government while still working in cooperation with the TFP. The northwestern region of Somalia, known as Somaliland, declared its independence in 1991, though it is not recognized by any country or international organization. Somaliland has its own democratically elected government, and since its self-proclaimed independence in 1991, has successfully avoided the instability and violence that have devastated the rest of Somalia.

Puntland has permitted piracy from its ports as a source of income, though there has been an increasingly effective international naval effort to stop the pirates, including renewal of authorization by the UN for allied naval forces to pursue the pirates to their land bases.

For the purpose of this Genocide and Mass Atrocities Alert, Genocide Watch sees the following warning signs of genocide and atrocities being committed against the civilian population of Somalia:

Prior unpunished genocidal massacres, such as those perpetrated by the Barre regime, primarily against the Isaaq clan, in the late 1980s;

Polarization and rule by clans;, and Islamist rule by al-Shabaab, both of which have exclusionary ideologies;

Systematic human rights violations being committed by all major parties (al-Shabaab, the TFG, ANISOM forces, Ethiopian and Kenyan armed forces and their respective militias.)

These widespread systematic human rights violations include the following:

Indiscriminate killing of civilians by all major parties;

Denial of humanitarian aid and basic necessities to civilians by al-Shabaab forces;

Arbitrary arrest and detention of civilians by all major parties;

Forced recruitment and physical abuse of children by al-Shabaab forces;

Domestic abuse and sexual violence against women;

Arbitrary arrest, abuse and deportation of Somali refugees by Kenyan forces.

The current crisis in Somalia is one of extreme complexity, but at its roots are two factors:

The after-effects of totalitarian communist rule under Siad Barre, followed by two decades of anarchy, war, and famine;

The clan-based nature of Somali society, which renders Somalia unlikely to ever adopt Western style democracy.  Siad Barre’s communist system unsuccessfully tried to abolish clans. Al-Shabaab is attempting to replace them through imposition of fundamentalist Islam. Neither totalitarian system will succeed.

Genocide Watch recommends that the UN, AU, and Somali officials convene an all-Somali Congress to draw up a new con-federal constitution that recognizes the autonomy of southern Somalia, Puntland, Gamudug, and Somaliland. The new constitution should draw inspiration from the Somaliland constitution of 2000, and allow Somalis to govern themselves using their traditional clan-based political system. A dramatic increase in accountability for human rights violations committed by all major parties should be enforced through a judicial system in accord with Somali traditions and international human rights.

Below is a map of Genocide Watch’s coverage of recent violence in Somalia

Clicking on a location will redirect to the associated article

Featured Image: Flag of Somalia (mega-flags.com)

Copyright 2014. Genocide Watch. 

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