Burundi: On the Brink?
AfricaFocus Bulletin 
27 April 2015 (150427) 
(Reposted from sources cited below)

Editor's Note

"The prospect of a third term for President Nkurunziza calls into
question the preservation of peace in Burundi. The president is
risking it all by trying to force his name on the ballot, against
the Catholic Church, civil society, a fraction of his own party and
most external partners. The opposition's survival is at stake and
the security forces are unsure how to react in case of violent
crisis. The situation is much more serious than the failed 2010
elections: what lies behind this new electoral cycle is the
upholding of the Arusha agreement as the foundation of Burundi's
regime." - International Crisis Group

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On April 25, the ruling party in Burundi confirmed the candidacy of
President Nkurunziza for a third term. Demonstrations in Bujumbura
beginning the next day have been met by a government crackdown, with
initial reports of five killed. The media crackdown has also intensified,
with independent radio stations being closed. What may happen next
is highly uncertain. But civil society activists as well as outside
observers fear further escalation of violence. Given the low profile
of Burundi on the world stage, they further fear that adequate
international reaction will be too little and too late.

This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains brief commentaries on the recent
situation in Burundi from the International Crisis Group, InterPress
Service, and Reporters without Borders.

Links to additional recent sources

Facebook timeline of Burundi peace activist Jean-Claude Nkundwa
https://www.facebook.com/Humble.steadfirm

BBC report on Apr 26 protests
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-32471667

Ignatius Ssuuna, "How Fragile is Burundi's Peace," IRIN, Apr 22,
2015 http://allafrica.com/stories/201504230254.html

Very clear summary of immediate background (in French), by Libérat
Ntibashirakandi, Apr 26, 2015 http://tinyurl.com/pyfjpyo

U.S. State Department statement, "U.S. Deeply Regrets Burundi's
Disregard for the Arusha Agreement," Apr 25, 2015
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/04/241109.htm

AfroBarometer reports from 2014 poll showing majority of Burundians
support term limits http://www.afrobarometer.org/ / direct URL
http://tinyurl.com/pdnhkko

For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on Burundi, visit
http://www.africafocus.org/country/burundi.php

-End Editor's note-

Elections in Burundi: Moment of Truth
International Crisis Group
17 April 2015 

http://tinyurl.com/kv2sfcw

Executive Summary

The elections scheduled to take place between the end of May and
August 2015 will be decisive for Burundi. The future of the present
rulers (President Pierre Nkurunziza considers running for a third
term) and, more importantly, the upholding of the 2000 Arusha
agreement as the foundation for peace, are at stake. Popular
protests and the precedent set by the fall of Burkina Faso's
president suggest street confrontations will take place if President
Nkurunziza decides to impose his candidacy. The return to violence
would not only end the peace progressively restored since the Arusha
agreement, it would also have destabilising consequences in the
region and mark a failure in peacebuilding. To avoid this scenario,
Burundi's partners, who have already expressed their concerns,
should increase their involvement in the electoral process and
prepare a gradual response depending on how inclusive the process
will be.

With the upcoming congress of the ruling party, which is supposed to
decide on its presidential candidate, and the 26 May legislative and
local elections only a few weeks away, tension is rising and
prospects for free and fair polls are slimmer by the day. While
preparatory meetings held in 2013 and the return of opposition
leaders to the country raised hopes of an electoral process based on
dialogue between the regime and the opposition, there are increasing
signs of a looming electoral crisis. The partisan use of state
institutions, exactions committed by youth militia (the
Imbonerakure), the lack of confidence in the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC), strategies by the regime to reduce the
inclusivity of the electoral process and the president's will to run
again exacerbate tensions. The opposition wants revenge after its
defeat in the 2010 polls, but it remains uncertain if its leaders
will be allowed to contest the elections.

The prospect of a third term for President Nkurunziza calls into
question the preservation of peace in Burundi. The president is
risking it all by trying to force his name on the ballot, against
the Catholic Church, civil society, a fraction of his own party and
most external partners. The opposition's survival is at stake and
the security forces are unsure how to react in case of violent
crisis. The situation is much more serious than the failed 2010
elections: what lies behind this new electoral cycle is the
upholding of the Arusha agreement as the foundation of Burundi's
regime.

International actors are aware of the stakes and risks associated
with the upcoming electoral cycle, and some neighbouring countries
are closely monitoring the situation. The UN High Commissioner for
Human Rights, the Tanzanian president, Belgian ministers and the UN
Security Council recently came to Bujumbura; the Burundian president
and his Rwandese counterpart met in Rwanda and a UN electoral
mission (MENUB) was sent in early 2015. As some Burundians flee to
Rwanda, the country's relapse into violence would be a pitifull
outcome for the guarantors of the Arusha agreement and could fuel
regional crisis. The reaction of Burundi's partners - especially the
guarantors of the Arusha agreement - is not commensurate with the
gravity of the situation. They must urgently mobilise sufficient
resources and will have to get more involved to prevent rising
tensions between supporters of the president and of the opposition
and to avoid confrontation in the streets.

[Recommendations (in English) also available at link above, as well
as full report in French]

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Opinion: Burundi - Fragile Peace at Risk Ahead of Elections

David Kode

24 April 2015

http://allafrica.com/stories/201504241557.html


In this column, David Kode, a Policy and Research Officer at
CIVICUS, the global civil society alliance, describes a series of
restrictions on freedom in Burundi and, in the run-up to elections
in May and June, calls on the international community - including
the African Union and donor countries - to support the country by
putting pressure on the government to respect democratic ideals and
by condemning attacks on civil liberties.

[Edited by Phil Harris. The views expressed in this article are
those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of,
and should not be attributed to, IPS - Inter Press Service. ]

Johannesburg, Apr 24 2015 (IPS) - Pierre Claver Mbonimpa is not
permitted to get close to an airport, train station or port without
authorisation from a judge.  He cannot travel outside of the capital
of his native Burundi, Bujumbura. Whenever called upon, he must
present himself before judicial authorities.

These are some of the onerous restrictions underlying the bail
conditions of one of Burundi's most prominent human rights activists
since he was provisionally released on medical grounds in September
last year, after spending more than four months in prison for his
human rights work.

Mbonimpa was arrested and detained on May 15, 2014, and charged with
endangering state security and inciting public disobedience. The
charges stemmed from views he expressed during an interview with an
independent radio station, Radio Public Africaine, in which he
stated that members of the Imbonerakure, the youth wing of the
ruling CNDD-FDD party, were being armed and sent to the Democratic
Republic of Congo for military training.

The arrest and detention of Pierre Claver is symptomatic of a
pattern of repression and intimidation of human rights defenders,
journalists, dissenters and members of the political opposition in
Burundi as it heads towards its much anticipated elections in May
and June 2015.

The forthcoming polls will be the third democratic elections
organised since the end of the brutal civil war in 2005.  The
antagonism of the CNDD-FDD government and its crackdown on civil
society and members of opposition formations has increased,
particularly as the incumbent, President Pierre Nkurunziza, silences
critics and opponents in his bid to run for a third term even after
the National Assembly rejected his proposals to extend his term in
office.

Tensions continue to mount ahead of the polls and even though the
president has not publicly stated that he will contest the next
elections, the actions of his government and the ruling party
clearly suggest he will run for another term.  Members of his party
argue that he has technically run the country for one term only as
he was not "elected" by the people when he took to power in 2005.

Civil society organisations and religious leaders recently pointed
out that Constitution and the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation
Agreement - which brought an end to the civil war - clearly limit
presidential terms to two years.

As the 2015 polls draw closer, state repression has increased, some
political parties have been suspended and their members arrested and
jailed. The Imbonerakure has embarked on campaigns to intimidate,
physically assault and threaten members of the opposition with
impunity. They have prevented some political gatherings from taking
place under the pretext that they are guaranteeing security at the
local level.

Civil society organisations and rival political movements have on
several occasions been denied the right to hold public meetings and
assemblies, while journalists and activists have been arrested and
held under fictitious charges in an attempt to silence them and
force them to resort to self-censorship.

Legislation has been used to stifle freedom of expression and
restrict the activities of journalists and the independent media.
In June 2013, the government passed a new law which forces
journalists to reveal their sources.

The law provides wide-ranging powers to the authorities and sets
requirements for journalists to attain certain levels of education
and professional expertise, limits issues journalists can cover and
imposes fines on those who violate this law.  It prohibits the
publication of news items on security issues, defence, public safety
and the economy. The law has been used to target media agencies and
journalists, including prominent journalist Bob Rugurika, director
of Radio Public Africaine.

The government does not see any major difference between opposition
political parties and human rights activists and journalists and has
often accused civil society and the media of being mouth pieces for
the political opposition, describing them as "enemies of the state".

In the lead-up to the last elections in 2010, most of the opposition
parties decided to boycott the elections and the ruling party won
almost unopposed. However, the post-elections period was
characterised by political violence and conflict.

Ideally, the upcoming elections could present the perfect
opportunity to "jump start" Burundi's democracy.  For this to
happen, the media and civil society need to operate without fear or
intimidation from state and non-state actors.  On the contrary,
state repression is bound to trigger a violent response from some of
the opposition parties and ignite violence similar to that which
happened in 2010.

The international community and Burundi's donors cannot afford to
stand by idly and witness a distortion of the decade-long relative
peace that Burundi has enjoyed, which represents the most peaceful
decade since independence from Belgium in 1962.

It is increasingly clear that the people of Burundi need the support
of the international community at this critical juncture. The
African Union (AU), with its public commitment to democracy and good
governance, must act now by putting pressure on the government of
Burundi to respect its democratic ideals to prevent more abuses and
further restrictions on fundamental freedoms ahead of the elections.

The African Union should demand that the government stops extra-
judicial killings and conducts independent investigations into
members of the security forces and Imbonerakure who have committed
human rights violations and hold them accountable.

Further, Burundi's close development partners, particularly Belgium,
France and the Netherlands, should condemn the attacks on civil
liberties and urge the government to instill an enabling environment
in which a free and fair political process can take place while
journalists and civil society activists can perform their
responsibilities without fear.

***************************************************************

Burundi: Authorities target independent journalists in run-up to
elections

Reporters without Borders
24 April 2015

http://www.rsf.org

As Burundi's ruling party prepares to hold a congress tomorrow to
choose its presidential candidate, Reporters Without Borders is
worried about an increase in harassment of the country's privately-
owned media.

Harassment of journalists and news media is not new in Burundi, but
there has been an increase in recent months. Covering politics has
become a minefield for reporters due not only to the presidential
election scheduled for 26 June, currently the main focus of
attention, but also the legislative and municipal elections
scheduled for 26 May.

The judicial system is letting itself be used to prosecute
journalists on trumped-up charges. The leading target is Radio
Publique Africaine (RPA), Burundi's most popular radio station,
which is well known for being critical of the government. Its
journalists are often the victims of abusive proceedings.

Yvette Murekasabe, the head of the RPA branch in the northern city
of Ngozi, was charged in early April with defaming Jules Ndatimana,
the provincial head of the ruling CNDD-FDD's youth wing, known as
the Imbonerakure (Lookouts), after she reported that, at an
Imbonerakure meeting, he had called for violence against those
opposing a third term for President Pierre Nkurunziza.

At a hearing on 10 April, she refused to comply when told to
identify her sources. On the morning of 21 April, she received
another summons to appear before judicial officials later the same
day but was unable to go because she was not in the city at the
time.

Alexis Nimubona, an RPA reporter in the northeastern city of
Muyinga, is being prosecuted on a charge of insulting the city
administrator for reporting that municipal market traders were
unhappy with his management of the market. He was threatened by
Muyinga's police chief in February after a report about bodies being
found in the River Rweru, on the border with Rwanda.

RPA director Bob Rugurika, who was held for four weeks in January
and February in connection with his coverage of the murder of three
Italian nuns, is meanwhile still charged with complicity in their
murder.

He was previously targeted by the authorities for reporting that
young Burundians were training in Sud-Kivu, in eastern Democratic
Republic of Congo. He says he has been getting death threats ever
since.

Serge Sindayigaya, privately-owned Radio Bonesha FM's correspondent
in the southern city of Makamba, was questioned by a prosecutor all
day on 9 April after reporting that weapons were being distributed
to the Imbonerakure – a sensitive subject in the run-up to the
elections, especially as senior police officers were said to be
responsible for the distribution.

In the past year, no fewer than four journalists have been
prosecuted or questioned by judicial officials in connection with
reports about the distribution of arms to the Imbonerakure, which
the authorities clearly regard as a sensitive issue. The four
journalists were RPA's Eloge Nionzima and Bonesha FM's Alexis
Nshekimana (in the northwestern city of Bubanza in April 2014),
Alexis Nimubona in May 2014 and Bonesha FM's Hamissi Karihungu in
the central city of Gitega in October 2014.

"Burundi is facing a decisive moment in its democratic history and
we are worried by these judicial summonses, which have all the
hallmarks of attempts to intimidate journalists who provide critical
reporting on the authorities," said Cléa Kahn-Sriber, the head of
the Reporters Without Borders Africa desk.

Radio Rehma, a pro-government radio station, has meanwhile been
taking a tougher line since last month, often interviewing people
whose comments verge on constituting incitement to violence. A guest
on a programme on 6 April said: "I would like to warn these civil
society people that we no longer need to build cemeteries and
monuments on their land."

The station has not however been penalized or told to moderate its
tone.

Kahn-Sriber added: "It is obviously important in the run-up to the
elections for journalists to act responsibly and not broadcast
inflammatory statements, but this rule must apply to all the media
regardless of their editorial line."

Reporters Without Borders has also noted several recent attempts to
intimidate journalists in a violent manner.

The home of Radio Isanganiro's correspondent in Bubanza, Spès-
Caritas Kabanyana, was attacked twice on the nights of 15 and 16
April by unidentified persons, who threw stones and banged the roof
with clubs.

Her coverage of illegal activity by the Imbonerakure (including
possession of weapons and voter enrolment fraud) may have been the
reason. Imbonerakure members had already tried to intimidate her in
the past. The police are reportedly looking for those responsible
for the attacks on her home.

Bonesha FM journalist Egide Ndayisenga was the target of a grenade
attack as he arrived at his home in Musaga (in Bujumbura province)
on the evening of 11 April. The grenade caused damage to the house
but did not injure Ndayisenga, who thinks the attack was linked to
coverage of the discovery of an arms cache in Kabezi. The head of
the intelligence service and the local police chief were seen near
his home on the night of the attack.

The next days and weeks will be decisive for Burundi, which is
ranked 145th out of 180 countries in the 2015 Reporters Without
Borders press freedom index.

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AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication
providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with a
particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus
Bulletin is edited by William Minter.

AfricaFocus Bulletin can be reached at africafocus@igc.org. 
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